As human populations expand and urbanize, natural habitats are increasingly converted into settlements, industries, and agriculture, limiting pollinator access to foraging and nesting sites. Further, climate change may alter the distribution of floral resources and the timing of flowering, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between pollinators and plants. While most studies have examined the individual impacts of climate and land use on bumblebee populations and distribution, less have explored the collective impact of these factors. Land use changes can either amplify, reduce, or cancel out the predicted shifts in suitable habitat ranges caused by climate change.  Emelia is examining the combined effects of climate change and land-use changes for both rare and abundant bumblebee species. 

Species distribution is broadly influenced by abiotic factors such as elevation and seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation. Further, for specialist herbivores like Manduca sexta and M. quinquemaculata, biotic factors, including host plant availability and the presence of a shared parasitoid Cotesia congregata, may play a critical role in shaping their spatial patterns. Yet, existing predictive models often focus solely on abiotic factors, with the contribution of biotic factors largely unknown. In this study, Emelia and her collaborators assessed whether abiotic and biotic factors as isolated or combined components of species distribution models (SDM) better predict the distribution of the congeners, M. sexta and M. quinquemaculata, and their shared endoparasitoid, C. congregata. Read more!